Pretty sure that I have the reason that this happened nailed down:
1) I rent a condo temporary (due to my wife's work situation) where the vast majority of people own (I own another house in another state and my license plate is from another state)
2) I work from the condo most days and thus I always get the best parking place (no assigned parking) due to my hours and to keep an eye on my car (it often appears that my car doesn't go anywhere even though I drive the car everyday because I leave after most people and get back before most people)
3) I didn't drive car much this week due to snow and ice on the roads
4) Massive rain storm Wednesday night and the suspected neighbor got soaked because they had to park in the second row of parking spaces (cry me a river lazy ass as I got soaked walking in from my wife's car that night as well)
5) I rented a car for an out of state business trip (why put the mileage on the M) and they saw me leave in the morning and got mad and decided to take it out on my car
I am 90% percent sure that this is my upstairs neighbor because they are (1) lazy (couldn't say that they have a job), (2) disrespectful (don't clean up after dog), (3) regularly park their car illegally or jam it up against other cars (both my wife and I have had to enter our cars from the passenger side before), and (4) are always complaining about parking (the walls are thin but there is no lack of parking!).
Additionally, they drive the worst or second worse POS in the entire community (which is generally filled with some very nice cars). The biggest kicker is that I have gone out of my way to be nice to this neighbor offering to take their groceries up the stairs, giving them help when they wash their car, etc.