Price after 5 yrs... ????

[apboogiedown]

HI there.

I am purchasing 11' 135i end of this month.

However, since I am planning to finance over baloon, I would like to ask your

opinion of about how much will this 135i cost after 5yrs.

MSRP is around 40k and I think I will drive about 65000 miles.

Please share your thought!!!

(
Or should I just lease for 3 yrs with 15000 miles?
I am buying it because I think I will drive at least 15000miles a yr. Any opinions???)

Thanks!!

[apboogiedown]

+ also im getting a stick shift. will it be kind of hard to sell? that is what my ca has told me

[Prof T]

Buy a 2010/2011 with low miles. You will come out ahead at the end of 5 yrs.

[Satalite]

Most people today prefer AT vs MT... so if you are looking to re-sell your car eventually it will be easier if it was an AT.

[BSM 335I]

Originally Posted by Satalite

Most people today prefer AT vs MT... so if you are looking to re-sell your car eventually it will be easier if it was an AT.

Though on this forum and many others I think you would have a better chance selling it if it were manual. Just from what I've been seeing here, the threads with MT equipped cars seem to get more attention then those with the AT.

Just my .02

[11N55]

Originally Posted by BSM 335I

Though on this forum and many others I think you would have a better chance selling it if it were manual. Just from what I've been seeing here, the threads with MT equipped cars seem to get more attention then those with the AT.

Just my .02

I would have to agree, most people prefer Auto but most people aren't driving sports cars. Since I consider the 135 a sports car MT should sell just fine.

[3onDubs]

I would think demand for MT would be higher as well (since it's a sporty little coupe).

I'm interested in knowing how much the car would be worth as well since I'm doing the same thing...

[apboogiedown]

lol should I just lease? but monthly pay is lower at baloon than lease and also lease has miles limit.. damnTT

[jpd]

I assume you really have no money down or little $ down hence the emphasis on the monthly payment. First, a balloon may satisfy the lower monthly payment but at the end that balloon is going to come back and bite you. Figure a car is worth 40% of its original value. The lease is a second option that isn't terribly good either unless you think renting a car is ok for 36 months. The limit on miles is there for resale value for the dealer. Low miles = more sales. Why don't you look at a cpo 2008 or 09 to purchase.

[apboogiedown]

Originally Posted by jpd

I assume you really have no money down or little $ down hence the emphasis on the monthly payment. First, a balloon may satisfy the lower monthly payment but at the end that balloon is going to come back and bite you. Figure a car is worth 40% of its original value. The lease is a second option that isn't terribly good either unless you think renting a car is ok for 36 months. The limit on miles is there for resale value for the dealer. Low miles = more sales. Why don't you look at a cpo 2008 or 09 to purchase.

Yes. your right. I do not have that much money around 2~3k downpayment is planned for now. I looked for cpo 2008~09 also for few months; however, could not find one with good price with what I want (manual, m sport etc.) I already have made an order and it will arrive end of this month. msrp for my car is around 40k and after 5 yr, I have to make a pay for another 16k. I think the car would worth at least 16k even after 5 yrs if the condition isnt bad. am I having wrong Idea? please advise me.

[3onDubs]

Originally Posted by apboogiedown

Yes. your right. I do not have that much money around 2~3k downpayment is planned for now. I looked for cpo 2008~09 also for few months; however, could not find one with good price with what I want (manual, m sport etc.) I already have made an order and it will arrive end of this month. msrp for my car is around 40k and after 5 yr, I have to make a pay for another 16k. I think the car would worth at least 16k even after 5 yrs if the condition isnt bad. am I having wrong Idea? please advise me.

From what I understand, BMW financial sets the rate conservatively so that you can come out on top after 5 years (assuming the car is in good shape, reasonable mileage, etc.).

You can always refinance, trade in, or sell, but you should be good in any scenario. The only problem I can see is if you want to get rid of the car before the 5 years is up as you reach equity much later.

[jpd]

The 1Series has only been in the states since 08 so it's difficult to tell how much a car will be worth in five years. However, remember that a dealer will usually only give you a wholesale value, and the value of a 2006 325 is around $11-12K. You could trade down to a 128 and save 4K for a new one. Don't put your self in a bind with a huge balloon. Remember you will be upside down throughout your purchasing experience. There are too many unknowns to rap your self into a 60month deal. You can wait and be a bit more patient, all the while saving more until you can come up with $7-8K. A 09 is almost as good and if you find one for $30K??? or so you would be much better off financially. Be prudent.

[apboogiedown]

Originally Posted by jpd

The 1Series has only been in the states since 08 so it's difficult to tell how much a car will be worth in five years. However, remember that a dealer will usually only give you a wholesale value, and the value of a 2006 325 is around $11-12K. You could trade down to a 128 and save 4K for a new one. Don't put your self in a bind with a huge balloon. Remember you will be upside down throughout your purchasing experience. There are too many unknowns to rap your self into a 60month deal. You can wait and be a bit more patient, all the while saving more until you can come up with $7-8K. A 09 is almost as good and if you find one for $30K??? or so you would be much better off financially. Be prudent.

I will keep it in my mind. I am still checking the lists of Cars.com Autotraders.com and also Craigslist everyday. I wish there are some 135i s with manual and sports package in it !!.
Thanks!

[jpd]

One final thought-there is a space gray 135 at Seattle BMW-I think it's an 09-manual six speed. Give them a call. They are a very good dealer. Good luck-CPO is very important to protect you from expensive bills. Try Northwest BMW last fall they had a low milage 135 with M sport and six speed. I have been buying from them since 1992.

[CJF]

Count on the car being less than 16k at 5 years.

[1on135_deal]

so i leased mine according to the numbers my payment should of been like 640 a month; but since the resale value is gonna be high it came to 525 a month idk if tat helps =o

[bogart]

Depriciation on a 1-series, according the dealer, is between 34-38% after 5 years. They also mentioned that the 1-series has the best 5-year depriciation value out of all BMW vehicles, which is nice to know. I'm expecting that my 5-year depriciation value will be somewhere around $16K.

[jpd]

I think you mean that the car is worth 34-38% of its original value after 5 yrs. Additionally, the condition of the car as total miles driven not to mention color and some other variables.

[Angry3]

Originally Posted by Prof T

Buy a 2010/2011 with low miles. You will come out ahead at the end of 5 yrs.

Good idea, the problem is there just aren't many 10/11 models out there for sale, and the ones that are CPO at dealers are going to be priced at 80+% of new. And the added cost of funds will eat into the savings even more.

Originally Posted by apboogiedown

lol should I just lease? but monthly pay is lower at baloon than lease and also lease has miles limit.. damnTT

Of course it will be, you're committing to use and make payments on the car for 2 additional years. Going over miles on a lease is far and away the most overblown concern people have. So you go you run over and have to buy extra miles 6 months out at .16 per. Lets say you *really* miscalculate and end up needing to buy 10,000 extra miles. That costs you an extra $1600. So what? If you think about it that's not that big a price to pay to be able to use up an extra huge chunk of the prime useful life of a $40,000+ car.

What's much worse is people who lease a car for 15K a year fearing they'll run out of miles then turn the car in with 10K miles to spare. Do that and you've doubly screwed yourself. First you didn't get the use of the car that you paid for, and you get neither a refund nor a reach around from BMW Financial. They just say thanks for giving us a car back that's now worth more than it would have been and will be an easier sell on the CPO lot.

Second, if you were thinking of buying the car, you can forget about getting a break from the buyout price. Why? The dealer now wants your low mile car to sell for top dollar as a CPO. Your at or over-mileage car is much more likely to be sold for less margin or wholesaled, and in that scenario the dealer is much more inclined to take the bird in hand and sell you the car at a modest markup from the BMWFS buyout amount.

Originally Posted by jpd

I assume you really have no money down or little $ down hence the emphasis on the monthly payment. First, a balloon may satisfy the lower monthly payment but at the end that balloon is going to come back and bite you. Figure a car is worth 40% of its original value. The lease is a second option that isn't terribly good either unless you think renting a car is ok for 36 months. The limit on miles is there for resale value for the dealer. Low miles = more sales. Why don't you look at a cpo 2008 or 09 to purchase.

Pretty good advice IMHO, except for the negativity on leasing in general. If the OP decides he's a good candidate for leasing in general (wants a different car every 3 years, takes care of his cars, etc.) then the lease vs. buy decision is just a simple math problem. How much more does it cost to lease vs. own for a given period, and do the benefits of leasing justify the often very modest and sometimes non-existent extra costs?

The smarter way to go is almost always to buy the car and hold onto it longer than 3 years, but the large number of anti-lease folks here that say leasing is automatically a bad idea vs. buying and selling after the same period of time are offering advice that isn't well grounded in fact IMHO.

Originally Posted by apboogiedown

Yes. your right. I do not have that much money around 2~3k downpayment is planned for now. I looked for cpo 2008~09 also for few months; however, could not find one with good price with what I want (manual, m sport etc.) I already have made an order and it will arrive end of this month. msrp for my car is around 40k and after 5 yr, I have to make a pay for another 16k. I think the car would worth at least 16k even after 5 yrs if the condition isnt bad. am I having wrong Idea? please advise me.

For anyone to advise you effectively you need to provide the proposed payment and cost of funds (interest rate or money factor) at a minimum for both options.

Originally Posted by 3onDubs

From what I understand, BMW financial sets the rate conservatively so that you can come out on top after 5 years (assuming the car is in good shape, reasonable mileage, etc.).

You can always refinance, trade in, or sell, but you should be good in any scenario. The only problem I can see is if you want to get rid of the car before the 5 years is up as you reach equity much later.

BMW tries to set the rate at what they think the car will be worth, but the interests of the buyer have nothing to do with it. They want to get paid what they're owed under the loan agreement, and will set the residual on an Owner's Choice contract to minimize the risk that the buyer will default and they'll end up with a car worth much less than the balloon payment amount.

Right on about the dirty secret of OC contracts. That low payment is nice, but the odds are the borrower will be upside-down for almost all, if not all of the loan term. These things can be a positive for someone who is financially stable, wants to stay liquid, and is willing and able to make a 5 year+ commitment to one car and absorb the risk of being upside down at balloon time. Or they're a ticket to an absolute financial bloodbath if things don't go as hoped/expected.

There's a reason OC (balloon payment) contracts are not even allowed by law in a majority of states.

Originally Posted by jpd

The 1Series has only been in the states since 08 so it's difficult to tell how much a car will be worth in five years. However, remember that a dealer will usually only give you a wholesale value, and the value of a 2006 325 is around $11-12K. You could trade down to a 128 and save 4K for a new one. Don't put your self in a bind with a huge balloon. Remember you will be upside down throughout your purchasing experience. There are too many unknowns to rap your self into a 60month deal. You can wait and be a bit more patient, all the while saving more until you can come up with $7-8K. A 09 is almost as good and if you find one for $30K??? or so you would be much better off financially. Be prudent.

+1

Originally Posted by CJF

Count on the car being less than 16k at 5 years.

+1

Originally Posted by 1on135_deal

so i leased mine according to the numbers my payment should of been like 640 a month; but since the resale value is gonna be high it came to 525 a month idk if tat helps =o

Lease residuals are more a sales tool and reflection of the need to help the dealers "Move the metal" than a reflection of what the car is expected to be worth. That comes into play, but the fact that a 1 series lease is set high in a given month has nothing to do with how it will hold it's value. The residual on my car was 59% on a 12K a year lease. This was for a leftover '08 model that I bought in Feb. of '09. BMWFS isn't stupid, they knew there was no chance in hell that my car (which will be 4 model years old at turn-in) will be worth 59% of the MSRP. They set the residual high because dealers were sitting on hundreds of unsold '08 135 convertibles at the time and needed a sales tool to get them off the lots. The same thing is going on right now with new M3 Convertibles that have a low money factor and an absurd 67% residual on a 10K/year lease. That residual is 7 points higher than the coupe. Does that mean the convertible holds it's value better? Nope, it means demand for the $75-80K, 400 pound heavier convertible model is slim, and dealers are choking on inventory.

Some cars lease well because they genuinely hold their value well. With BMW, the best leases are often on struggling, slow selling models that need a push out of the showroom. More often than not you can tell which are which.

Originally Posted by bogart

Depriciation on a 1-series, according the dealer, is between 34-38% after 5 years. They also mentioned that the 1-series has the best 5-year depriciation value out of all BMW vehicles, which is nice to know. I'm expecting that my 5-year depriciation value will be somewhere around $16K.

I'd add the word "expected" in there somewhere. And avoid taking anything your dealer tells you at face value

Originally Posted by 3onDubs

I would think demand for MT would be higher as well (since it's a sporty little coupe).

I'm interested in knowing how much the car would be worth as well since I'm doing the same thing...

Demand is higher for the MT...on this board. Unfortunately this board is not as representative of the 1 series buyer pool as one might think. Manuals are less than 10% of production, and it wasn't because BMW didn't know what it was doing. An auto is almost always going to be a quicker, easier sale once you get off of this site.

That said there's a viable market for used 6MT cars, I wouldn't let resale concerns even come into the picture in the buying decision. When it comes to transmission, the golden rule is don't settle for what you don't want.

[Freakazoid]

16k after 5 years? I don't see how that's possible
After 3 years they're still worth 25k+ I don't see another 10k drop in the next 2 years?

[jpd]

Wholesale is the operative word.

[freshwhite335]

I would only recommend doing BMW Select if you plan on keeping the car for the full five years. I did BMW Select on my 1er thinking I would keep it for 5 years but my employment situation has recently changed and I am making a bit more money. I would love to trade my 1 in in 6-12 months for an M3 but the thought of being so upside down when I go to trade incenses me. We'll see what I end up doing, but BMW Select really only benefits BMW.