1er coupe diesel for U.S .???

[ibeam81]

Originally Posted by PACIFICONE2003

For those of us that have way too much free time at work, there was an interesting study completed by UBS Investment Research that focused on---- "Is diesel set to boom in the US?" dated May 24, 2007 vs. HybridsThe conclusion were:

��

Lowering CO2 emissions in the US: Is diesel or hybrid best?

US regulators may soon move to set higher fuel economy standards, accelerating
demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. At present, hybrid technology appears to be the
preferred route in the US, but diesel can deliver similar benefits at lower cost.
Diesel already dominates in Europe. The conditions may be right for a diesel boom
in the US, in our opinion.
��

A detailed cost/benefit analysis of the two technologies

This report is produced in collaboration with Ricardo, experts in automotive
technology. We have undertaken detailed analysis of the relative economy
benefits, cost penalties and legislative constraints of diesel and hybrid.
��

Diesel is a lower cost option; legislation - the key obstacle

Ricardo forecasts growth in both technologies, but expects diesel to prevail by
2012 (1.5 million units versus 1.2 million hybrids). Diesel's cost burden is lower
than hybrid's for similar fuel economy - even with the 'clean' technologies needed
to meet tough US emissions regulations (including California). Diesel's cost lead
over hybrid is most marked for larger vehicles (crossovers/SUVs).
��

Diesel is easier to invest in than hybrid: Key stock ideas

Diesel and hybrid growth should benefit key stocks within our coverage. Diesel
looks set to benefit the German OEMs (BMW, Mercedes, VW) and Honda, plus
key suppliers (BorgWarner, Denso, perhaps Continental). The only obvious hybrid

plays are Toyota and battery makers (JCI).

Basically, they predict 15% of the light duty vehicles sales will be made up of both Diesels and Hybrids by 2012.

Great information. Thanks!

Hopefully we are looking at a coming sea change and the 123d will show up in the US within a couple of years. :thumbup:

[PACIFICONE2003]

I am hoping!!.....it might take a couple of years though.

[ibeam81]

Originally Posted by PACIFICONE2003

I am hoping!!.....it might take a couple of years though.

I guess better late than never, but it's very hard waiting.

It would be nice if I could drive the 135i and 123d back-to-back. I guess that I could take a trip to the UK, but I think that I'll need something better than the "I need to test drive some cars" excuse if I hope to obtain the needed WAF (Wife Approval Factor). :iono:

[PACIFICONE2003]

I am not the most patience person…just ask my wife :biggrin:…..I am tossed between the 1er, Mini Cooper or VW Tiguan………all for different reasons. I need to hold tight until this Spring-Summer 2008:mad:!!! If the 1er came in a diesel....that would close the deal!

[murdoc158]

The only thing that's holding me back from really wanting a diesel are the fuel prices. Right now, diesel ranges somewhere between the cost of regular unleaded and midgrade gasoline. If, in a few years, there is a sudden "boom" in diesel vehicles, I'm worried the cost of diesel would jump up quite a bit. I know gasoline prices will continue to go up, but can we expect the sudden jump in diesel if there is more demand for it?

[ibeam81]

Originally Posted by murdoc158

The only thing that's holding me back from really wanting a diesel are the fuel prices. Right now, diesel ranges somewhere between the cost of regular unleaded and midgrade gasoline. If, in a few years, there is a sudden "boom" in diesel vehicles, I'm worried the cost of diesel would jump up quite a bit. I know gasoline prices will continue to go up, but can we expect the sudden jump in diesel if there is more demand for it?

That's a distinct possibility and I'm actually surprised that they haven't already gone up more due to the ultra low sulfur requirements that went into effect last year.

[aesthetect]

^^ im completely with you there, seems they should have. regardless, if you are concerned with fuel prices there is no way the diesel will climb at the same rate as petrol in any sort of long terms sense. petrol is in trouble, it has such a large base of transportation and related energy sources dependent on it, coupled with declining/more expensive sources; it will face a steady decline and has enough of a hold that it isnt feasible for the entire economy to suddenly switch to diesel (speaking with regard to north america) enough to make prices spike. add to that the fact that you will be using what you buy much more efficiently in diesel..

[PACIFICONE2003]

That's a very valid point regarding a spike in Diesel prices as demand increases....but, I am hearing only a jump of about 15% going to Diesel over the next 5 years in US.....I think the prices will be more stable then Preimum. Preimum is all over the board...but Diesel in Michigan stays at a steady 2.80'ish a gallon.

[kutch]

Not that I like/ or agree with all thats written here...
Diesel Won't Solve Our Gasoline Woes

By Michael D. Tusiani

Monday, August 8, 2005; Page A15
Automakers are eager to sell you a diesel-powered vehicle. One of their responses to the rising price of gasoline has been to tell American motorists they can keep their large, powerful vehicles and at the same time save on fuel by buying a car or truck that burns diesel instead of gasoline. The new energy bill establishes a tax credit as large as $3,400 for diesels, matching the break allowed for hybrids.
Diesel-fueled vehicles do afford somewhat better mileage and may not require as much maintenance as gasoline-burners. But now and for years to come, the U.S. refining industry simply cannot produce enough diesel fuel to accommodate a significant increase in the number of vehicles that burn it.


At this year's auto show in New York, a DaimlerChrysler executive responsible for research and technology cited the success of diesel-engine automobiles in Europe while suggesting that these vehicles could gain a 5 to 10 percent share of the U.S. market. He made those comments at the introduction of a Mercedes-Benz station wagon scheduled to land in America in 2006. He did not mention, however, that because of the popularity of diesel-powered autos, diesel oil prices in Europe are soaring as demand pushes past the amount refiners can make.
European governments, working with automakers, have persuaded their citizens to replace gasoline-powered cars with diesel. They set tax rates to render diesel fuel cheaper than gasoline. But oil companies had no reason to invest in additional equipment for diesel production. Demand for diesel therefore bumps against the limit of supply. The marketplace will remedy such a situation, but it will be slow (because building new refining equipment takes time) and painful (because high-cost fuel hurts the financially weak the most).
Refineries can be equipped to make either a high yield of diesel or a high yield of gasoline, but not both. European refiners built their equipment before governments started manipulating the fuel market. To date, they have declined to scrap money-making gasoline production units worth many billions of dollars and replace them with even more expensive diesel hardware. But the market flirts with inducing such reinvestment. On a pretax basis, diesel has become much more expensive than gasoline in Europe. In five years European refineries may complete the construction of equipment to significantly increase diesel oil output. But in the meantime, Europe will have to import ever larger quantities of diesel -- that is, if it can find supply. Europe has raised its diesel quality standards to such a high level that very few refineries in other parts of the world can manufacture an acceptable product. Interestingly, the United States can. During a few months last winter, U.S. refiners quietly shipped diesel to Europe. Due to our own demand, that could not continue.
These exports undoubtedly raised U.S. prices while they lasted. In this country, we burn diesel mostly for commercial transportation. As our economy expands, we will need more fuel for trucks and locomotives to transport goods. In 2004 trucks and other diesel-burning vehicles required about 150,000 barrels per day more than in 2003 -- a one-year increase of almost 5 percent. If America continues to prosper, this commercial use of diesel will keep growing. Like their European counterparts, U.S. refiners have not seen any reason to invest in greater diesel production. In fact, they have a strong disincentive to build diesel-making equipment: Unless refiners can increase crude oil processing capacity, which seems unlikely, making more diesel will reduce gasoline production. Furthermore, they have gasoline production hardware that has only recently started to make solid profits for them as the price of gasoline rises.
For diesel-powered autos and light trucks to achieve a market share of 5 to 10 percent, American motorists must be compelled to buy 800,000 to 1.7 million of them per year. We do not have the spare diesel production capacity to cope with the additional demand that would produce, and we will not have it for quite some time.
Give U.S. refiners about 10 years and they might significantly increase diesel production capacity. It would take about that long to plan new projects and run the regulatory and litigation gantlet. Until then, a motorist buying one will have to compete for expensive diesel fuel in an increasingly tight market. In the meantime, diesels do not increase American motorists' practical choices. If the energy bill had given us new sources of diesel fuel, it might have done some good. As it is, that $3,400 tax credit could just tempt Americans to make a mistake.
The writer is chairman and chief executive of Poten & Partners Inc., which provides brokerage and consulting services to the oil, gas and maritime industries. He is a senior fellow at Columbia University's Center for Energy, Marine Transportation and Public Policy.

[kutch]

Scientists have improved the technique for transforming coal into "green diesel," potentially making the process economically feasible to bring the fuel to a pump near you.
Coal fuel is seen by some as a potential bridge between the limited supply of oil and alternative fuels, many of which aren't ready for prime time.
The United States is sitting on enough coal to make this idea feasible, if it can be extracted and processed cost-effectively. Some 95 percent of the country's energy reserves are coal, while oil and gas make up 2 and 3 percent respectively.
"Many people in the energy sector think that when oil starts to run out, coal will be a source of transportation fuel for some time before we perfect the science behind solar and hydrogen-based energy," said Maurice Brookhart, a chemist at the University of North Carolina.
The method for transforming coal and other carbon sources into liquid fuel has existed since the 1920s. Today, most large vehicles in South Africa are powered by diesel fuels produced by this method.
American companies have expressed interest in the technology, but the process has proved too expensive to catch on, even though green diesel emits fewer particulates and less carbon monoxide than gasoline engines.
The researchers have improved the process by using special catalysts that rearrange carbon atoms in coal to form higher-energy molecules, which are then converted to usable diesel.
The process is still in its early stages and will need further improvements before becoming commercially available.
The research is detailed in this week's issue of the journal Science.
Copyright © 2006 Imaginova Corp. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[PACIFICONE2003]

Kutch....thank you for this insight (good stuff)! I see where supply and demand could play a major role in pushing Diesel up.

[dieselchas]

I know this may seem a bit simplistic given the situation; but with the RECORD profits of the oil companies and an obvious increase in demand for diesel, shouldn't they work to increase the production capacity of diesel.

As far as getting new diesel engines accepted in the US you have our lovely state of California to thank for the hurdles. This state has the toughest restrictions on diesels and was a front runner in requiring particulate filters on all 07+ diesel applications. This has added an additional 5-9% increase on most chassis brands. The State is even going as far as to require all registered diesel powered OHV (Off Highway Vehicles) owned by state/ local municipalities and utility companies be retrofitted with particulate filters or have the motors replaced with new powerplants. This includes everything from tractors to generators and even sno-cats.

As you probably guess from my name, I am a fan of diesel technology in most applications. But looking to the far future and stepping away from fossil fuels as our primary source of fuel; I think hydrogen will be an excellent but potentially dangerous solution.

Should BMW hint at the small diesel motor being available in the 1 seires, I would hold out, but for now that does not seem the case.
So all I can dream about is a 300hp little demon built by BMW...

What color???? What Options???? :iono: Hmmmm. How am I going to work on a friday thinking about the car.

[aesthetect]

what has been the nature of restrictions on petroleum engines? honestly government funding or subsidizing of revamping old cars/trucks is one of the best things you can do to help the nations energy problems. but that is ridiculous if they are doing so only to diesel engines. i think the main problem is that their restrictions focus on emissions. i wish they would be as hardassed about consumption, at least then they would be doing some good.

[Donkeyshins]

Originally Posted by larryn

Every car model/engine combination that BMW sells in this country has to get certified to be allowed to sell here. That costs millions of dollars to do. There would be no return of investment in the certification process, likely only shifting sales from one BMW model to another (no net new sales), and they would lose a ton of money.

I don't see it happening without a huge campaign to push deisels in this country, along with biodeisel education. Biodeisel availability or not, deisels are viewed as dirty and rough by most in this country. I still think about those old Benz deisels with cakes of soot on the back bumper when I think about deisel cars.

But, you are forgetting one important factor: automobile manufacturers get fined millions of dollars for not achieving CAFE standards across their range of vehicles. With cars like the M5/M6, 760 and X5 (V8) all getting very poor mileage (low-to-mid teens in the city, low 20s on the highway), BMW stands to benefit by bringing over more efficient vehicles. If BMW brought the M47 diesel to the states and was able to sell it in sufficient numbers, they could boost the average to a point where they might reduce or completely nullify their CAFE penalties. Would it offset the cost to Federalize the M47 motor? I don't know, but it would be an interesting exercise.

-D

[Donkeyshins]

Originally Posted by aesthetect

what has been the nature of restrictions on petroleum engines? honestly government funding or subsidizing of revamping old cars/trucks is one of the best things you can do to help the nations energy problems. but that is ridiculous if they are doing so only to diesel engines. i think the main problem is that their restrictions focus on emissions. i wish they would be as hardassed about consumption, at least then they would be doing some good.

AMEN!

I would love to bring a 2000-2004 M47 diesel motor and ancillaries over from Europe and retrofit it into my E36, but I have no idea (a) how much it would cost and (b) what sort of hoops I'd have to jump through in order to make it happen.

-D

[guyatherton]

There will be BMW diesels in 2008, below is a quote from the 2006 BMW Annual Report :

Prior to the Los Angeles Auto Show, the BMW
Group announced in November that it would also
be offering diesel-powered BMW brand cars from
2008 onwards to customers in the USA, resulting in
an even higher proportion of this type of car in the
overall fleet.

For those who want to read the full report it is located at :
http://www.bmwgroup.com/bmwgroup_pro...006_gesamt.pdf

The X5is an obvious candidate for having a diesel but I am sure the 3 series and thenthe 1 series will also receive at least one diesel.

The bad perception that some people have of diesel will fade. I know thatthe perception of diesel in the UK was poor until the 1990's and now diesel is fast becoming the fuel of choice.

[PACIFICONE2003]

I agree that the X5 is the first candidate for being a Diesel in the states....likely the 5er, and 3er also.....but, I don't see BMW offering a 1er Diesel right away....maybe 2-3 years.

[ibeam81]

Originally Posted by PACIFICONE2003

I agree that the X5 is the first candidate for being a Diesel in the states....likely the 5er, and 3er also.....but, I don't see BMW offering a 1er Diesel right away....maybe 2-3 years.

Yep... I tend to agree that this is the likely scenario.

[aesthetect]

maybe even longer for the 1er

[BForbes]

I'm surprised this thread is still alive. I dont see a 1series diesel for a VERY long time.

[aesthetect]

because we keep the faith.

that picture of the s2k in your sig is awesome

[BForbes]

Originally Posted by aesthetect

because we keep the faith.

that picture of the s2k in your sig is awesome

Yeah faith is good. Thanks man!!