[akhbhaat]

I was originally going to post this as a response in another thread, but it got so large that I figured it would be more fun to post a new thread and see what others come up with. There are, of course, plenty of rumors and speculation about new engines in the E90...335 being of particular interest. But what about the rest of the line-up? I decided to focus on the US market because that's what I know best (seeing as I live here).

Personally, if I were BMWNA, this is how I would build the 3 series lineup for the US market. It would be directly targeted at Audi and Lexus (the Infiniti line-up is just one car at the moment, no use in wasting time on them...Acura isn't a truly serious competitor, and MB is getting ready to refresh the C-class - note that my proposed E90 line would already be well setup to take on the current w203 anyway - and I'm not about to start planning for something I can't really plan for) with room for changes/improvements as market conditions demand.

What I'm NOT going to do is say whether I think the 335 will be turbo or N/A, or if they'll be out in time for MY2007. Let's just assume that this is for MY2008, when the M3 arrives.

The rest is pure speculation, of course! Mind you, I'm not just completely making stuff up, here...I'm going on whatever I think to be true and logical at current and then filling in the gaps in what I consider to be a logical way.

On with the show:

Assuming the N51 is real and destined for the US market, I would imagine 3 models in the US market (at least initially):

323i - 2.5L (N51) - New
328i - 3.0L (N52) - Replaces 325i
335i - 3.0L (N54) - Replaces 330i

I don't think BMW will downgrade the 3.0L 325i to a 2.5L-whatever. They wouldn't want to make the new car LESS appealing than the one it replaces - ESPECIALLY WHEN THAT MODEL IS ALREADY THE VOLUME SELLER!!! In my mind, that basically throws out the possibility of a 325/330/335 setup with the 2.5L engine in the 325, the 330 remaining as is and the 335 coming in above the 330. What about leaving everything else as is? Well, simply introducing the 335 and selling it for 40k+ isn't going to work. Being so much more expensive than any similar competing car, it wouldn't sell well, and BMW would still be relying upon the 325 and 330 to bring in the dough. Too much heat in the market to do that (esp from Lexus/Infiniti), and the 335 (which I should add has no real competition elsewhere in the world, where the G35 and IS350 aren't readily available) would be an utter waste with poor sales.

Therefore, a 323/328/335 lineup (as described above and below), in my opinion, creates better market spacing without moving the entire line up-market, which is a very, very bad idea when you don't have an entry level car (i.e. 1 series) to pick up any of the slack.

So, the 325 (now "328") will probably stay 3.0L and move upmarket just a smidge...so the 2.5L car comes in below as a new entry level model (especially since I think it's unlikely we ever see the 1 series here, unless they build a sedan, so who knows). The 323i will (obviously) have the least amount of standard content...no sunroof or power seats.

So, the 328 will be a slightly detuned 330...add a piece or two in the way of standard content over the current 325 (like xenons or power seats), jump the price a grand or two (with 323i coming in underneath now you can afford to hike the price a bit here).

Introducing a 323i has the potential do funny things to the 325/328, since it will no longer be the entry level model. IF there is NOT a 323i, I would imagine the changes to the 325 would be very minimal - just some extra power, very little change in price, and that's it. Think about what BMW did during the 323i > 325i switchover with the E46.

335 to replace 330. Basically the same standard content as current 330i (but add comfort access, should be standard in this car!), increase price to ~$38,000. A few very minor exterior changes, like repositioning of the exhaust pipes, maybe new wheels. Rest mostly the same as outgoing 330/325. I'm not going to say whether this is turbo or N/A, because I don't know and I'm not going to pretend to. Shouldn't REALLY matter in terms of power or market positioning, anyway...for what it matters, I don't think it would make sense for BMW to build out a whole new block for a 3.5L engine just for something as speculative as brand image in the US market (however large it may be), but I digress.

Whatever happens with a "335si," who knows. Granted, I wouldn't be surprised to see a ZHP-like car in the E90 line using a title like 335si, and I wouldn't be surprised if it featured a slightly uprated turbo engine (if US gets turbo), a cosmetics package, maybe a suspension upgrade, and some wheels...and a $4000 or $5000 premium over the "basic" 335. You can justify the premium with the cosmetics upgrades over the 328/335 (which should look fairly similar) and some M3-like special colors (imola, lemans/interlagos) and/or interior bits (short shifter, special seats/trim, you know), etc. Shrinks the gap between M3 and 335 and brings BMW a truly legitimate S4 competitor.

Thus, a summary with prices and estimated power:

323i - $28,000 - ~170 hp (SULEV 2.5L, new entry level, slight downgrade in standard equipment from 325i/328i - steal sales from IS250!)
328i - $33,000 - ~240 hp (include a few extra standard features over current 325 to compensate for price increase - like Logic 7 and/or xenon; power seats)
335i - $38,000 - ~310 hp (mostly same content as 330i; make CA standard, slight price increase obvious: new engine)
335si - $43,000 - ~330 hp (335i + ZHPish goodies - suspension/M sport pkg type stuff, wheels, exterior cosmetics, maybe slight change in rear end ratio)
M3 - ~$50,000+ - ~400+ hp

I do want you to know that BMW plays funny games with their power ratings, and while I think that the above numbers will be close to what BMW actually quotes for each car, the 323 and 328 in particular may be a bit more powerful than their numbers actually suggest.

Chief competitors (in what I consider order of current importance):

323i - IS250, C230, TSX
328i - A4 2.0T, TL, C280, IS250
335i - IS350, G35, C350, A4 3.2, S4
335si - S4, IS350
M3 - RS4, C55, "IS500" (does anybody really think MB will build a C63 with the next gen?)

This way, they're all nicely spaced in terms of power, price AND content (though the M3 will certainly command an extra premium - and the power to go with it) and priced to sell for the US market. I'm imagine the 328i being the best seller here, followed by the 323i and then the 335i. The 335si would probably be the lowest selling model (even lower than the M3), marketed mainly towards enthusiasts or (if there's no 4 door M3) 4 door M3 wannabes, but seeing as it would have a similar production cost to the 335i, even a low volume run would just add padding to company profits.

Honestly, I think the core of the line in terms of sales and commercial important will remain the 328 and 335 (more or less the successors to 325/330), since the 323 will likely carry a low profit margin and the 335si will be expensive and low volume.

Here's how I see the battle lines being drawn with the above arsenal: from what I know about the Canadian model, the 323i is about as fast as the IS250 (let's say it can do ~high 15's with a manual). Use it to undercut the IS250 in price. The 323i would be a great competitor for the IS250 and Acura TSX.

The 328i will be considerably faster still (say mid 14's - slightly faster than the current 325i, slightly slower than the 330i - actually, right about as fast as the old E46 330) and priced just above it. Anybody who likes the Lexus because of value could be lured to the slightly cheaper 323; anybody who really wants luxury and/or performance (vastly exceeding that of the IS250) can opt for the 328. I think this could trap and crush the IS250. I can't be sure...I don't know who buys the IS250 even now because I think it sucks to begin with (slower and less agile than my nearly six year old 323i, and that's pathetic).

The 328 would also do direct battle with the A4 2.0T, its primary competitor. What about the TL? Don't know...always thought of that as sort of fitting in between the 3 and 5...despite price, it's fairly big and heavy.

Of course, the 335i alone would be used to crush the IS350, G35, and C350. No doubt the turbo engine with torque and 310 hp when mated to a 6 speed could be propelling this car to mid 13 second quarter mile times and trapping at ~104 mph (notice it will still be slightly slower than the old E46 M3...). This level of performance just beats out the IS350 and easily kills the C350 and G35. If you saw my IS350 thread, you also know that getting one for under $40k is nearly impossible, so the 335i is at no disadvantage here, and if you look at current 330i sales (which are similar to those of the IS350 despite power disadvantage), it's no stretch to imagine that the 335 (if priced right) would outsell the IS350 fairly easily. Meanwhile, the A4 3.2 and very expensive C350 (which I think starts at damn near 40k as is, for a soon to be replaced model!) wouldn't even be a concern.

Comments? If you have any suggestions or changes you'd like to make, or feel that my ideas are completely off, feel free to let me know. And, of course, put together your own idea of what the E90 line should be, if you'd like.

[speedyj88]

I think you're summary would mostly be spot on, except for the price point of the 335si and the M3. For all the goodies you're getting with the si, i think there'd be more than a 5k jump in price. I also have a feeling the M3 is going to come in at 55k at least.

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by speedyj88

I think you're summary would mostly be spot on, except for the price point of the 335si and the M3. For all the goodies you're getting with the si, i think there'd be more than a 5k jump in price. I also have a feeling the M3 is going to come in at 55k at least.

I based that mainly on what the 330 ZHP used to cost over the basic 330i (though the difference when actually equipped was realistically more like 2k, since the sport and premium packages were essentially unnecessary with the ZHP)...but you make a good point. I think it really depends upon what sorts of goodies BMW wants to put into it. If it gets a complete cosmetic overhaul and a new suspension, it could easily start at around 45k, even with a minimal power increase.

As for the M3, I don't know much about that, that's why I just left it at "$50k+."

[wac77]

Sounds like quite good guesses, although you may be a bit optimistic about the price points.

I do not like the 323 and 328 designations, but those can become 325 and 330 (again) 2 years later.

Also, I'd prefer to see a V8 powered 340i instead of the (likely I6 turbo) 335si at the 330+HP level.

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by wac77

Sounds like quite good guesses, although you may be a bit optimistic about the price points.

I do not like the 323 and 328 designations, but those can become 325 and 330 (again) 2 years later.

Also, I'd prefer to see a V8 powered 340i instead of the (likely I6 turbo) 335si at the 330+HP level.

I think my optimism with the price points is mainly limited to the 335si and M3, and only then because the 335si is extremely speculative in nature and nobody quite knows exactly what to expect from the M3 just yet. As for the rest of the cars, I have good reason to think that price changes will be fairly minimal ($1500-2000 at most) - BMW can't move the entire line up-market without having something underneath it first. Quite honestly, even $2000 is a fairly big increase in price (5-6%!) after just one year on the market...regardless of whether or not the cars have new engines.

FWIW - the E46 M3 and E37 M Roadster had almost exactly the same retail price in both 2002 and 2001. The Z4M Roadster is priced at about 52k...I find it hard to believe the M3 will vastly exceed this car in price, though I suppose we'll see.

[ward]

yeah, 5 different models for the states


they've never had more than 3

[JazzEKline]

I think you are exactly right. I always thought that if BMW would intro the 323 in the US that would actually make things easier with the top of the line E90's. For one it just makes for a more complete line. Two it would be easy for BMW to do. Three it doesn’t make BMW look like they are getting power hungry in the eyes of environmentalists buyers, and it basically splits the difference between BMW and the competition (which you did a nice job of showing in this post). Now bring on a diesel E90 and one that runs on hydrogen and we will really be cook'n.

[jcoo085]

BMW wouldn't bring in the 320i as their entry level and have a 320i, 325i, 330i, and 335i lineup??

Maybe the 320i with its 2.0L I4 wouldn't be viable in the US market (although, having driven one it's not too shabby performance-wise, and the engine note is still pretty good).

[JazzEKline]

Originally Posted by ward

yeah, 5 different models for the states


they've never had more than 3

What about E46: 325, 330, 330 Preformace, M

[ward]

Originally Posted by JazzEKline

What about E46: 325, 330, 330 Preformace, M

330 had performance package as an option
325, 330 (which may or may not have had perf pack), M3

3 models

that's like saying the 330 is a different model because it has premium pack vs a non premium pack car

also the M3 with competition package is an M3, not a complete other model.



it costs money for dealers to have inventory around. They absolutely positively, no chance in hell will have more than 2 3 series models in the states plus an eventual M version

No dealer would stand for having to stock double the versions of non M 3 series

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by ward

yeah, 5 different models for the states


they've never had more than 3

Never more than 3?

1995: 318ti - 318i - 325i - M3.
Four.

1996-1997: 318ti - 318i - 328i - M3
Four.

1998: 318ti - 318i - 323is - 328i/is - M3. All E36.
Five!

Note that the 318ti (compact/hatch) is quite a different car than the 318i/318is despite sharing engines. Completely different chassis/frame, body shell, and interior. It also cost thousands less.

Also remember that the 335si I proposed is not really a new car - more like a "ZHP" version of the 335i. I just designated it as a seperate model to show how it fits into the lineup. I suspect that BMW might sell this car - if they were to build it - just as they did the ZHP. Add it as a $4000 or $5000 package, maybe even $6000. Sort of like the ZHP/ZCP packages...which some people even regard as different cars (because in many respects they are). Also, again, it would be very low volume - just like the ZHP equipped cars - and dealerships wouldn't stock many if at all. So in reality it's more like four models - as the E36 was throughout the latter half of its production (1995-1998), even though the US market has offered five before (as pointed out above).

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by jcoo085

BMW wouldn't bring in the 320i as their entry level and have a 320i, 325i, 330i, and 335i lineup??

Maybe the 320i with its 2.0L I4 wouldn't be viable in the US market (although, having driven one it's not too shabby performance-wise, and the engine note is still pretty good).

The 320i does not have enough power for the US market and, as BMW discovered with the 318 (especially during the later years of E36 production), Americans have developed an aversion to paying for four cylinder engines in relatively high end cars. It's really a wonder that the Audi 1.8T/2.0T sells - probably because it has a turbo (and even then not THAT well - certainly nowhere near 3er levels).

Also, there are no competing cars in the US market besides the TSX (which has an extremely large - 2.4L - four cylinder), Saab 9-3 and A4 2.0T that have a four cyl engines - and most of those are turbo fours.

[ward]

Aha! I forgot the different cycling of new motors arriving in the 2 and 4 doors at different times!!

good catch!

[thunderbirdsarego]

akhbhaat may be correct.

However, it would also seem to be less effort for BMW to simply start selling the 323 (as it appears in Canada) into the US and then add an additional model (with possibly more than one variant), the 335, to the 3-series line? Then along comes the M.

This would allow for two high performance cars much as Audi has done with the S4 (335+) and the RS4 (M3).

I guess a lot depends on who BMW really thinks they are competing with. I.e. do they really think they are losing significant buyers to the Japanese brands and if yes, do they believe that horsepower will make all the difference (versus price etc.).

I suspect that BMW will always struggle to compete with the Japanese (and other) manufacturers on horsepower at a similar price point since their engineers are committed to retaining balance. This also makes me wonder whether BMW would ever simply drop a 330 hp engine into the E90 w/o making other changes (suspension etc.). They are too committed to getting it right than to just up the HP.

Lastly, I think the US market is surely ready for more models of 3. If the UK can have so many engine configurations I am sure more than 3 could be sold in the US, heck even Canada has the 323 !

Time will tell, I guess.

[roppongicorolla]

Acura is not a serious competitor? The TL and TSX combined outsold the 3 series in 2005. The combination outsells G35, IS300, and A4 combined.

Anyway, getting back to your model lineup, the 'entry model' will be a 320d. A diesel brings in the 'green crowd' that may have been looking at hybrids but cringe at the cost of future battery replacement, plus the diesel's low end torque suits the way America travels.

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by roppongicorolla

Acura is not a serious competitor? The TL and TSX combined outsold the 3 series in 2005. The combination outsells G35, IS300, and A4 combined.

Saying that those two cars combined outsell the G35, IS300 and A4 combined isn't saying much. Lexus was struggling mightily to sell a mere 1000 IS300's per month (notice the redesigned model is now moving at a rate of ~3000-4000/month), and the A4 has always sold very poorly relative to the 3. The only particularly brisk seller in that group is the G35, which is more or less matched by the TL in terms of volume.

What I meant by that is that Acura's products seem to be positioned in such a way that they don't compete directly with BMW's, but do have some potential to steal buyers from them. Acura builds mostly FWD cars with value as a high priority - if you drove (and priced/optioned) both back to back, you'd be hard pressed to think of either the TSX or the TL as a 3 series competitor. The only car that Acura builds that REALLY takes an honest shot at the 3 series is the TSX...and, though there's a tendency to compare the TSX to the 3 series or the A4, I honestly think of the the TSX as more of a sporty Accord (sort of how the RSX is a sporty Civic) and see it more aligned with cars like the more expensive versions of the Mazda 6 and Nissan Maxima, though the TSX is a bit more upscale with a fancier badge. Really, the TSX is sort of a funny car - it's FWD, sport-tuned, and it has a 4 cyl motor, yet it puts on airs with the Acura badge and a fairly upscale interior. Sans the latter features, it would easily be classified as a Mazda competitor.

I didn't see any real change in 3er sales when the TSX was released. I don't know where Acura is getting the buyers for that car, but it's not from BMW. It is possible that they positioned their car (which is a good bit cheaper than a well equipped 325) into a niche which hadn't yet been exploited...or they might be feeding off of potential Nissan/Mazda buyers who want to move to a slightly more upscale marque (seeing as Infinti no longer has a car in the same class as the TSX in the US market).

The TL is successful and sells well, but my research (including anecdotal evidence) tells me that relatively few people seriously cross-shop the TL (which, as I pointed out, is a fairly large and heavy car) with the 3 series. You'll see TL/3er comparisons pop up on various forums from time to time (mainly Car and Driver and Edmunds forums - not enthusiast sites), but these are sporadic...quite a few people I've talked to even consider the TL as a very value oriented 5 series alternative (interesting). Also, I've briefly owned a similar ~$30,000 Acura before (a 2003 3.2CL), and it really wasn't nearly the same car that the BMW was in purpose, let alone execution. Though there's a possibility that people will cross-shop these cars, they're more or less different.

I definitely think of the RWD, 6 cyl IS250/350, G35, and soon-to-be-redesigned C-class as the biggest threats to 3 series supremacy. It seems to me like the Acura products have actually been placed (purposely so) in-between the BMW/Mercedes/Infinti/Lexus lines - the TSX sort of scoots in just below the 3, the TL fits between the 3 and the 5, the MDX is as large as an X5 yet sells for X3 prices, and the RL sells somewhere around the 5.

[David328M-Sport]

WOW! Big read.

I LOVE my 325 and it goes very well. Thanks BMW.

Till the successor to the e90 comes out in say 2011 or 2012, I am very happy.

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by thunderbirdsarego

akhbhaat may be correct.

However, it would also seem to be less effort for BMW to simply start selling the 323 (as it appears in Canada) into the US and then add an additional model (with possibly more than one variant), the 335, to the 3-series line? Then along comes the M.

They could do this, but I explained my reasoning for thinking otherwise above. I have no doubt that they should pursue a more aggressive approach - simply adding a new model on top and a new model on the bottom does nothing to improve their competitiveness with the most dangerous products already out there. While BMW could easily sit back and ride their brand reputation and buyer base as long as possible, that's almost GM-like in terms of foolishness. Once you get to the top, you have to work to stay there. Just my opinion, of course...based on life experiences and all.

But honestly, I don't really care THAT much - just know that I really don't want another base model 3 series, and I simply don't think the 330i is worth the money when there are some very good alternatives available - this coming, mind you, from a fairly long term BMW buyer. I'm not 100% sold on the E90 styling yet (inside or out) and there are some very low mileage E46 ZHP cars floating around which I could get for less that are just as fast. The E90 is not such a huge enough improvement over my old E46 that I'm just going to rush out and buy one because it's the latest, greatest thing. Some new engines and maybe a couple extra color choices might change that.

I guess a lot depends on who BMW really thinks they are competing with. I.e. do they really think they are losing significant buyers to the Japanese brands and if yes, do they believe that horsepower will make all the difference (versus price etc.).

Very true. In my opinion: the Japanese are, by far, the biggest threat (remember how value conscious the US market is!). Note that I'm thinking in terms of the US market - Audi is a relatively small player in the US market (BMW probably outsells them here by at least 3:1 or 4:1 in almost every market segment they compete directly in), whereas they're fairly popular in Europe, where Audi is arguably BMW's most important competitor (especially at the lower end of the luxury market).

If there's no engine change this year, and I'm going to buy another new BMW anytime soon, it will likely be the Z4 coupe. I personally have absolutely no significant desire to buy the E90 in current form and several of my peers (fellow BMW owners) feel the same way. Actually, I really hate to say this, but if I were to buy a sport sedan RIGHT NOW, I wouldn't even consider the A4 or C-class, and I would probably spend a lot more time around the Lexus and Infiniti dealerships. So, yes, there is some personal perspective invested into whom I think BMW really needs to pay attention to.

I suspect that BMW will always struggle to compete with the Japanese (and other) manufacturers on horsepower at a similar price point since their engineers are committed to retaining balance. This also makes me wonder whether BMW would ever simply drop a 330 hp engine into the E90 w/o making other changes (suspension etc.). They are too committed to getting it right than to just up the HP.

Lastly, I think the US market is surely ready for more models of 3. If the UK can have so many engine configurations I am sure more than 3 could be sold in the US, heck even Canada has the 323 !

Agreed...we'll see.

[Mono]

Owners of the 306 hp IS 350 are already seeing real world times of 13.7's in stock form. The current 298 hp G35 6MT can run 14 flat in stock form. The G35 is getting revamped for 2007 and I doubt Infiniti will keep the power the same as current.

The 335i will not "crush" these cars with only 310 hp. unless it's really light. It's about pound per horsepower. BMW is only just catching up to the horsepower war that is already well underway. If the 335 isn't priced in line with it's competition (IS 350, C350, G35) it won't sell well.

A detuned 330 engine in the 328 and costing more than the current 330i? How is that going to sell? Why would someone pay more in 2007 for a detuned 328i then they could have paid for a 330i in 2006? Makes no sense.

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by Mono

A detuned 330 engine in the 328 and costing more than the current 330i? How is that going to sell? Why would someone pay more in 2007 for a detuned 328i then they could have paid for a 330i in 2006? Makes no sense.

~$33,000 MSRP is more than $36,600? The 328i with prices as I listed would be ~9% cheaper than the 330i. Don't see where you're getting that.

And I'd like to see a timeslip and proof of a stock IS350 on street tires running a 13.7. I'd say 13.9-14.0 is far more realistic. As for the G35, 14.0 is possible but most drivers seem to hit the lower 14's @ ~100 instead. A turbo 335 would definitely have more off the line torque than either car, which might not matter in a 0-150 sprint, but can make quite a difference in the quarter mile. Don't forget that the G35 and IS350 are pigs.

[Mono]

Originally Posted by akhbhaat

~$33,000 MSRP is more than $36,600? The 328i with prices as I listed would be ~9% cheaper than the 330i. Don't see where you're getting that.

And I'd like to see a timeslip and proof of a stock IS350 on street tires running a 13.7. I'd say 13.9-14.0 is far more realistic. As for the G35, 14.0 is possible but most drivers seem to hit the lower 14's @ ~100 instead. A turbo 335 would definitely have more off the line torque than either car, which might not matter in a 0-150 sprint, but can make quite a difference in the quarter mile. Don't forget that the G35 and IS350 are pigs.

The G35 sedan weighs less than the coupe and the same as the 330i. I don't think you have really studied the competition.

[akhbhaat]

Originally Posted by Mono

The G35 sedan weighs less than the coupe and the same as the 330i. I don't think you have really studied the competition.

And I don't think you have really read any of my posts thoroughly.

Curiously enough, I never said the 330i was light (though we could easily get into a debate discussing actual test weights in a loaded car with fuel, driver, options, etc - something which I'd rather not do). In fact, I didn't once mention the 330i when I was talking about the G35 or the IS350 (most references to those cars throughout this thread have been in reference to the hypothetical 335i, whose actual specifications we don't know yet). Nor did I attempt to differentiate between sedan and coupe - as though 40 lbs (little more than 1%) taken from a ~3500 lb car really matters.

Enlighten me: what relevance does the 330i have here? We already know that the G35 and IS350 are faster than the 330i.