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      07-25-2018, 05:16 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Dodger View Post
All the Taiwanese need is a credible deterent threat that would ensure huge Chinese casualties. The Chinese will not invade unless success is ensured. They (the communists) can't afford to lose face on the domestic front. And the Taiwanese would be HUGELY more motivated than any Chinese army recruit storming Taipei. They would have their hard earned freedom to lose.
Military action is not the preferred choice for either side, especially not for Taiwan. For mainland China, it is also not preferred since they still see it as civil war, meaning they would see it as killing their own brethren.

Taiwan maintains an active conscription/military draft policy for all able-bodied males between age 18-35. However, Taiwan has been liberalizing over the last two decades and the duration of training and the intensity of the training has been significantly decreased.
It's fair to say that the ROC Army was able to give the PLA a run for its money during the Cold War, but not so much anymore...the PLA is thoroughly modernizing, while the ROC Army has plateau'd or fallen behind, which is why Taipei is betting strongly that the US would come to Taiwan's aid.
The US, due to the One China Policy, does not officially comment on its stance on this, but its actions through the Taiwan Relations Act and arms sales shows at least some commitment.

With the [overall] increase in economic ties and exchange of populations, the likelihood of war is theoretically less, but there are "red lines" of which not to cross. The PRC has made it clear that there are at least 2 immediate triggers that will be met with zero-compromise military action:
1) Taiwan independence - Taiwan is de facto self-ruling under the government known as the Republic of China. This is a legacy of the Chinese Civil War. Beijing is okay with that because "Two Chinas" to them is a lesser evil than "One China, One Taiwan". The day that Taipei drops the "China" from its name and changes it to "Republic of Taiwan" would be where first blood is drawn.
2) Foreign military invasion - This one is simple. If a foreign power (i.e., non-Chinese) invades or occupies Taiwan, then the PLA would respond as if its own sovereign territory had been invaded.

The third and final one is the one you just mentioned, when the PLA is determined that success is ensured. One can fathom to guess that this means that if no long-term sincerity can be reached with Taiwan, and the PLA has determined it has the clear upper hand, then boom.
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