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I think your guesses are pretty close. I considered trading mine in when I got my X3 (I ended up keeping it and having both), also a 2011 with 6spd, Nav, leather, HK, etc. plus a few factory options I know don't add much. Main difference is I had ~ 26,000 miles. My numbers were about 8k trade in, 16-18k selling it, thinking along the high side of that with low probably being more realistic.
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