Just Me or 1M Prices Going Up

[Fahrvergnügen]

I frequent this website a lot which tends to keep track of 1Ms for sale and track stats closely. http://www.1mcoupebuyersguide.com/listings

It seems like anything below $50k is a good deal unless it has a ton of miles. Lot of recent listing have been around $60k.

I wonder now that the M2 hype has recessed and less 1Ms are for sale (and also the 1M seemed favorable over the M2 in many reviews) prices will rise.

Obviously, this post is US/Canada centric.

[arvinz]

It's nice to see—I am one of those owners who was initially looking at picking up a 135i late in it's life only to realize an M version was coming out so I hunted it down not knowing it was going to be a limited edition car at that point.

I searched far and wide and somehow got extremely lucky as a buyer backed out at the last minuted on a loaded VO (minus the BMW apps) and someone on these boards put a post up saying it was available.

I just love everything about this car...it suits my style and I really haven't come across another vehicle that I've felt the same way. My car is about to hit 12,500 miles and I've enjoyed every minute of it, even when I'm not driving it!

I don't plan on selling it—I hope I can keep it and give it to my kid(s) one day.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by Fahrvergnügen

I frequent this website a lot which tends to keep track of 1Ms for sale and track stats closely. http://www.1mcoupebuyersguide.com/listings

It seems like anything below $50k is a good deal unless it has a ton of miles. Lot of recent listing have been around $60k.

I wonder now that the M2 hype has recessed and less 1Ms are for sale (and also the 1M seemed favorable over the M2 in many reviews) prices will rise.

Obviously, this post is US/Canada centric.

I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that one data point. Jon Martin, the owner of the 1M site you refer to, also has sites dealing with Z3 and Z3M Coupes. I've had a bit of contact with him over the last couple of years, and when he was launching the 1M site we had some emails back and forth about the limited data that is out there on sales listings and actual sales prices. Jon does the best he can under the circumstances, but I think the deck is really stacked against him.

The Z3 coupe and Z3M coupe markets are much easier to follow, have more turnover, and easier to verify actual sales prices, than can be said of the 1M coupe sales.

[Gangplank]

There's only 4 listed on cargurus. 3 under 1M and one misfiled as a 135i. All 50-60k

[champignon]

Originally Posted by Gangplank

There's only 4 listed on cargurus. 3 under 1M and one misfiled as a 135i. All 50-60k

Asking prices do not equal actual sales prices. Not every car for sale shows up on any one website. When a sale is made there is no way to compel that the actual sales price is disclosed (except by the local DMV, for sales tax purposes).

Unlike more common cars, there are not enough actual sales transactions out there to be able to construct the sort of database that NADA or KBB use to roughly value other, more common, used cars. Every one of these 1Ms is a "one-off" sale, each one has its own condition, its own mileage, and its own marketplace in which the sales transaction occurs.

This is not to say that a typical 1M in decent condition and reasonable mileage for age is not worth $50 to $60,000, however it is to say that no one really knows until they go out into the marketplace and try to buy a vehicle for themselves.

The following unrelated example is perhaps illustrative: My business partner and I have owned a residence together for about 6 years, which he uses as a primary residence and I use when I am in town for business reasons. We went in together in this because it saves us both a lot of money. A few months ago we decided to get a bigger and better house, and to unload the old one. The resale market for "cheap" houses is very tight in the particular city and there was hardly anything in the part of town available for under $300K. Our house to be sold was newish and in good shape, however right on a busy and noisy road; under normal circumstances it would have been a hard sell, however being as there was no other competing inventory, there was lots of interest.

We ended up selling the house for $50K more than an assessor's recent previous estimate of value obtained only a few months earlier, and for $20K more than our agent's original suggestion. When the first sale fell through, we raised the price, and this time put onerous conditions on the buyer were he to back out of the sale after only 2 weeks. He wanted the house so he accepted those. The house appraisal for this transaction came in at a value under the purchase price, and we said, essentially, take it or leave it. He took it, and the sale closed. Appraisals from 2 professional appraisers within 1 month using prior sales data comparisons varied significantly during the time we had the house up for sale with the 2 different potential buyers (last one actually completing the sale).

My point is that in a thin market, it doesn't take much to push the price up or down quite a bit depending upon the balance of buyers and sellers, and if the market is thin enough, it will all depend on which party wants to complete the transaction more than the other party, and the one wanting it more will pay dearly for that privilege. 1M resales occur in a very thin market, just like our old house did.

[Shroom]

I think the 1M is a 50-65K car for most conditions and miles. If its a 9-13K mile un-moded and prestine one owner, it's likely a 65K car. Maybe 70 if the right buyer gets the word. 20-30K miles and I would say it's 50-55K. Anything above two owners and and 50K miles I'd say it's 45-50. That's just my observations and the data I have seen trying to ensure my car and having to get appraisal reports and seeing actual sales data from the dealer-national sales database.

It does feel like they have been getting more desired lately which is firming perceived prices up.

[blue135]

BUYERS push prices up, SELLERS push prices down. Think about it.

Based on years in buying energy, but has applicability. If somebody wants a 1M, and wants it bad enough, he will pay what it takes. If somebody needs to sell a 1M, they will do what it takes to get it sold.

[Fahrvergnügen]

Sorry but this wasn't supposed to be a super detailed analysis of the 1M market. As someone pointed out, that's nearly impossible to do. However, since buyers and sellers generally both have the same information available about 1M prices the playing field is even. All I was saying is by looking at the handful of 1Ms available, it SEEMS as if they are inching/trending upwards at the moment. I'm no Hagerty but if I were again a buyer, I would probably be thinking the same thing. It is intriguing to me though since I will most likely put mine up for sale within the year.

[GimmeanM]

Originally Posted by Fahrvergnügen

Sorry but this wasn't supposed to be a super detailed analysis of the 1M market. As someone pointed out, that's nearly impossible to do. However, since buyers and sellers generally both have the same information available about 1M prices the playing field is even. All I was saying is by looking at the handful of 1Ms available, it SEEMS as if they are inching/trending upwards at the moment. I'm no Hagerty but if I were again a buyer, I would probably be thinking the same thing. It is intriguing to me though since I will most likely put mine up for sale within the year.

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-vid...ate-model-cars

I think it's too early to see any real upward movement. In 10 years, 20 years however...

[ilikebmxbikes]

Prices at the moment are up but it fluctuates based on how many are on the market. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes back down only to go up again.

[blackmist222777]

Prices are destined to go up. rare car. last of the old school steering systems. true frankestein. i fully expect this car to be a $100k car in the next 10 years. call me crazy

[godzilla-1]

The M3 csl is a good guide for what 1M prices will be like in time to come. Pretty much the same build numbers, but let's not forget that the csl Is a limited edition of a mass produced M car. The 1M is a standalone limited production M car. This will almost definitely never be repeated again.

[hot-j]

Originally Posted by godzilla-1

The M3 csl is a good guide for what 1M prices will be like in time to come. Pretty much the same build numbers, but let's not forget that the csl Is a limited edition of a mass produced M car. The 1M is a standalone limited production M car. This will almost definitely never be repeated again.

Very good point.

[redux]

The price will go up, but ours won't. I'd a reckon there at least 150 garage queens with less than 5000 miles on the clock (I know 4 with less than 1500) ready to flood the market as soon as someone sells theirs a for 80 to 100K. The well used examples are going to be forever stuck in the $50,000 range if we're lucky.

[Osiris]

Originally Posted by redux

The price will go up, but ours won't. I'd a reckon there at least 150 garage queens with less than 5000 miles on the clock (I know 4 with less than 1500) ready to flood the market as soon as someone sells theirs a for 80 to 100K. The well used examples are going to be forever stuck in the $50,000 range if we're lucky.

I don't know how they keep those cars functional at 1500 miles after so many years.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by redux

The price will go up, but ours won't. I'd a reckon there at least 150 garage queens with less than 5000 miles on the clock (I know 4 with less than 1500) ready to flood the market as soon as someone sells theirs a for 80 to 100K. The well used examples are going to be forever stuck in the $50,000 range if we're lucky.

The garage queens you cite will be a tiny sub-market.

Collectible cars really take a price hit after a certain mileage is reached, and this does adjust over time according to age. Nonetheless, there probably aren't too many examples of highly valued collectible cars with more than 100,000 miles on them. Mileage is not just mileage, but wear and tear. A car that has done 50,000 mostly freeway miles in 5 years will have less wear and tear than one with the same mileage after 15 years that was used exclusively for short jaunts in town.

On the other hand, if the 1M becomes a true cult car, then I could see people buying extensively used ones and putting tens of thousands into them to become truly "refurbished" to factory specs. You do see the very occasional 2002 that has been given that treatment, however in that case the reward is not there since the 2002 was such a huge volume vehicle; only the 2002 tii would truly merit that treatment and I doubt that there would be a monetary return for doing that, since most of the 2002s have varying degrees of body rust damage, not to mention cracked dashboards, etc.

Given the relative rarity of the 1M, I think it will evolve into a one-off market, with lots of variation in price depending on condition.

[M3 Adjuster]

I checked on Autotrader last week and couldn't find a 1M under 50k unless it had more than 70K miles and that one was at 46k.

My ex-wife texted me last week and said since she sold her E46 M3 she wants a 1M. - ha - good luck ! Buy an M2!

My girlfriend also would like to get a 1M.

I called my bank to see what loan values are and was told $53,900 based off my VIN which was originally 46K msrp

[Fahrvergnügen]

Originally Posted by redux

The price will go up, but ours won't. I'd a reckon there at least 150 garage queens with less than 5000 miles on the clock (I know 4 with less than 1500) ready to flood the market as soon as someone sells theirs a for 80 to 100K. The well used examples are going to be forever stuck in the $50,000 range if we're lucky.

those 150 garage queens will always be a high-value sub market. Every year more 1Ms are either modded to insanity or crashed, leaving the near-OEM spec 1Ms w/o crazy low miles in shorter supply. Look at air cooled Porsches, the E30 M3, Z8, 1st gen NSXs and TT Supras... all have much higher production numbers and even high mileage examples are trading for good money.

In the near future, not much will happen really IMO. Maybe prices will go from hovering around $50k-$55k to $55k-$60k, but if you have the means of keeping it for 10+ years then I could foresee large growth.

This past weekend I talked my wife into keeping the 1M and adding the next car

[Fahrvergnügen]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

I checked on Autotrader last week and couldn't find a 1M under 50k unless it had more than 70K miles and that one was at 46k.

My ex-wife texted me last week and said since she sold her E46 M3 she wants a 1M. - ha - good luck ! Buy an M2!

My girlfriend also would like to get a 1M.

I called my bank to see what loan values are and was told $53,900 based off my VIN which was originally 46K msrp

I still haven't seen you around the Dallas area. Do you ever drive up to Plano/Frisco area? Classic BMW said they've only ever seen one other 1M (a black one) which I assumed was yours.

[1mm2]

Originally Posted by Fahrvergnügen

those 150 garage queens will always be a high-value sub market. Every year more 1Ms are either modded to insanity or crashed, leaving the near-OEM spec 1Ms w/o crazy low miles in shorter supply. Look at air cooled Porsches, the E30 M3, Z8, 1st gen NSXs and TT Supras... all have much higher production numbers and even high mileage examples are trading for good money.

Those air cooled 911s have gone crazy.

[jaymcars]

I remember a similar debate and speculation way back in 2007 regarding the "all new" e90 335i vs. the "old and outdated" e39 M5. The consensus on the thread was that with all the new turbo technology and the 335i being "as fast" as the e46 M3; the M5 was now obsolete and not worth much and never really would be. Haha. Ha, hah.

[vasmir]

Originally Posted by Fahrvergnügen

This past weekend I talked my wife into keeping the 1M and adding the next car

Ditto... missed the E30 train. Caught the 1M train in time.
Next car will be the daily commuter. Thinking electric. The 1M will stay forever though.

On a side note, I created something similar to track Z4 M coupe prices, back when I was shopping between M coupe vs 1M.